Syed Junaid Hashmi
JAMMU, Nov 6: Social media has been buzzing with a familiar kind of speculation that Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi is preparing to launch his own political party and that former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, founder of Democratic Azad Party, may join hands with him alongwith Engineer Rashid of the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP). This could be part of a new political front in Kashmir.
Some are even claiming that the moment Ghulam Nabi Azad steps back into Valley politics, there will be a political storm. But is that realistic?
Anyone with even a basic understanding of Kashmir’s politics is unlikely to believe that Azad will show serious interest in the Valley again. Nor do seasoned observers see much chance of Ruhullah and Engineer Rashid coming together to build a new party particularly after the setbacks he and his party faced in recent elections.
The Azad Question
Ghulam Nabi Azad remains a leader of considerable stature. But stature alone does not win elections. The central question is simple. Does he still command a substantial vote bank in the Valley or even a credible political base in the Jammu division?
If he did, he would have contested Anantnag–Rajouri–Poonch Lok Sabha seat. He did not.
When Azad formed Democratic Azad Party and entered electoral politics, he was quickly tagged in the Valley as part of BJP’s “C team” with Syed Altaf Bukhari already being described by critics as “B team.” His party’s political arithmetic may have suggested eight to ten seats in the Valley. In reality, it was wiped out.
Since then, the party has effectively disintegrated. Many senior leaders have returned to Congress while Azad has largely remained away from active politics. After that experience, would he take such a major political risk again? It seems unlikely.
Azad has now himself dismissed the speculation saying he has held no discussions with any political leader about a new alliance or political formation.
Engineer Rashid’s Fading Wave
Engineer Rashid’s victory in the Lok Sabha elections created a genuine political moment in the Valley. The wave was strong enough to defeat heavyweight leaders including Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference chief Sajad Gani Lone. But that wave did not last.
After his parliamentary win, rival parties began questioning his credibility. They circulated images and narratives suggesting that he was “Delhi’s man,” and that he had stayed in particular hotels after coming out of jail.
They said his rise was not as independent as his supporters believed. Whether one accepts those claims or not, their political impact was clear. Rashid’s image took a hit. In the Assembly elections that followed, he lost badly. Several prominent leaders who had joined the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) hoping to benefit from his momentum also lost.
That raises an obvious question: how much political capital does Engineer Rashid still bring to a new front?
What Ruhullah Is Actually Offering
Aga Syed Ruhullah’s exit from the National Conference has created genuine political interest. He has hinted at launching a new political outfit. Though he has also said that his priority is a broader movement for the restoration of dignity and rights for the people of Jammu and Kashmir.
But a movement is not the same as a party.
And a party requires more than powerful speeches. It needs organisation, workers, resources, clear programme and above all people willing to share political risks. That is where Ruhullah faces his biggest challenge.
His politics rests on a demand that goes beyond restoration of statehood. While Omar Abdullah repeatedly emphasises statehood, Ruhullah argues that the real issue is the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status: Article 370, Article 35A,l and everything that was undone on August 5, 2019. That is a much harder political position.
Can Confrontation Deliver?
Ruhullah’s argument is that statehood will not return merely through appeals, consensus, pleadings or folded hands. He believes there must be a political fight. He firmly says that even if required, a confrontation with BJP and BJP-led central government.
CM Omar Abdullah’s approach is different. He argues that statehood can be pursued through dialogue, consensus, debates and sustained political engagement.
Ruhullah’s criticism of Omar is essentially this. Instead of fighting Delhi politically, National Conference chose compromise. He has accused the government of using batons against young people while failing to confront real issue.
But what does “fighting Delhi” actually mean in practical terms?
Statehood, if it is to be restored, must ultimately come through Parliament. A bill will have to be introduced, debated and passed. No amount of street politics can substitute for that legislative process.
And the central government’s stated position is that it is prepared to restore statehood but not the pre-2019 constitutional arrangement.
But it has desisted from giving any timeframe. New Delhi views Article 370 and Article 35A as symbols of separatism and obstacles to full integration. Expecting this government to reverse that position through confrontation is, at best, a distant hope.
Limits of Opposition Politics
Some may argue that the answer lies in waiting for a change of government at the Centre i.e after 2029. But that too may not make things easier.
If the BJP loses power, it will become an even more aggressive opposition.
Any future government, especially a coalition, may find it politically difficult to take a major decision on Jammu and Kashmir. The issue is too emotive, too nationalised and too deeply tied to BJP’s political identity. In other words, waiting for a friendlier government may not automatically open the door that was closed in 2019.
Who Will Join Him?
There is another practical problem: who will stand with Aga Syed Ruhullah? Kashmir’s politics has never lacked ambitious leaders. But it has often lacked leaders willing to tie their future to an uncertain idea. A new political formation demands sacrifice, organisational work, electoral risk, financial commitment and the willingness to face scrutiny from both the establishment and rival political parties. How many Valley politicians are prepared to do that?
National Conference, meanwhile, has a massive organisational advantage. Its workers are present across the Valley. They have already begun attacking Ruhullah, digging out old videos and contrasting his earlier statements with his current position.
Ruhullah will have to fight on several fronts at once. He will have to take on NC, the party he left. He will be up against rival parties, against the central government’s red lines and against the perception that his politics offers emotion without a workable roadmap.
Real Test
Ruhullah can speak “any language” from a stage and few will stop him. But ordinary people face a different reality. A citizen who writes a few critical lines under one of his videos may find themselves summoned to a police station. That asymmetry between freedom of political leaders and vulnerability of ordinary citizens is itself part of the political problem.
But it also exposes limits of rhetoric. If Ruhullah wants his movement to become a serious political force, he must answer hard questions. What exactly does he want restored?
How will he restore it? What is his strategy for prisoners, statehood, special status, and for people who may face consequences for supporting him? Until he offers a clear political programme not just a powerful critique; his space will remain limited.
For now, the talk of a Ruhullah–Azad–Rashid front appears to be more social-media speculation than political reality. Azad has denied it, Ruhullah has not announced a party and Engineer Rashid’s is in Jail and his party weakened. Kashmir may be on the edge of a new political moment. But a new party, a new front or a new movement will need far more than speculation to succeed.
